The approaching trade deadline

In hockey parlance it is silly season right now. The trade rumors swirl, one being often sillier than the other. Fans go bonkers online speculating, fueling and sometimes creating their own rumors. Some rumors end up being trades, others pipe dreams born of hopeful fans and yet others hilariously improbable games of message warping where one rumor is mentioned and substantiated only by online comments. 

With the rise and spread of social media, fans have direct access and direct input on any and all rumors. This usually makes for great discussion among fans of various teams but it also means fans often rely on doubtful sources because as we all know: if it is posted online, it MUST be true!

So as a Habs fan how do you make sense of it all?

This blog piece will not be about rumors or even players that may interest the Habs as this has been done and continues to be done to death on twitter. I will instead engage in a little bit of GM-centric analysis. A note to the wise: this is just my take on the Habs GM based on his history when it comes to trades as the team's GM. 

At the end of this piece, I will discuss a few issues that I like to call my Points of note. 

Forecasting Bergevin and the deadline

In Marc Bergevin the Habs have a GM who sticks to his plan. When looking at his trade and signing history, you see a GM who does NOT overpay for trades and who seems to always consider the key points of his team development mantra:

1- Develop key young players.

2- Do not trade high value assets for quick fixes 

3- Develop an "Earn it" culture within the team for players

4- Always consider the cap situation and contracts well ahead

5- Auto-correct when signed players no longer perform (ie trade them away)

These 4 points have in my opinion guided most of Bergevin's moves. A recent example being the trades of Moen and Bourque for two players on expiring deals, thus freeing nearly 5 million CAD for this summer. When we hear the cap will not rise by much next season and knowing Galchenyuk must be signed, these deals become brilliant. This GM will NOT handcuff this team with a bad deal for a player on a bad contract. 

As the deadline looms ahead, and considering past deadlines under this GM a quick trend becomes clear: acquisitions are for players on expiring deals, reasonable deals and at a reasonable price. Bergevin also goes for depth, especially on defense. 

I for one am convinced he is well aware that this edition of the Habs is still developing into a full fledged contender. Right now they are one of the good teams in the East and may yet do some more damage in the playoffs. However this does not seem to be THE year where he goes all in for a big trade to try and win the Stanley Cup. 

With all this being said, I expect Bergevin to make 1-2 smaller trades involving depth players that can help the team. We may yet see a "Vanek' type deal but the price would have to be right. I do not see Bergevin trading a 1st round pick and a top prospect for a rental and I am not even sure he would deal these assets for a signed player unless he was everything this team needs. Bergevin will more likely make smaller more affordable deal that will help the team in other ways like last season when he acquired Weaver and Weise, two players who became key contributors for the final season stretch and playoff run. 

This is just my read on things and I could certainly be wrong. Fans will continue to post EA sports-like trade scenarios online because it is fun and often amusing. Thankfully, the Habs GM is not a virtual franchise mode GM but rather a pretty damn smart hockey man. 

Points of note

1- Emelin: This guy, along with DD has become the whipping boy of a slice of the fan base. His play has dipped since the injury and to me he has clearly lost a step. This means his timing is off and that he is unable to deliver those timely bone crunching hits. Take this out of his game and he suffers. This guy still has time to right the ship and playing on the bottom pair may allow him to do so. However, with a 4M cap hit, bottom pair duty is not what the GM wants. As Gorges did last summer, Emelin may become a cap casualty.

2- Dale Weise on the top 6. This has sent many fans into complete mouth-frothing bouts of delirium! The fact is that with Parenteau out and with other wingers not performing as expected, the coach has to make adjustments. Weise is not a longterms solution on the top 6 but he can do well there until a solution is found or until the team acquires more depth at winger. 

3- The firetherrien meter rose a little bit higher with the two losses earlier in the week. This seems to be the unavoidable reaction to anything this coach does. I was not a big fan of the hire when it happened but results are hard to argue with. This guy finds ways to win and to get his players going. they (players) clearly buy into the team concept. For all the ills heaped on this coach, namely that he does not develop or play young players, evidence points otherwise (look at the players he plays)

4- DD is the main team whipping boy for a slice of the fan base. You will read many things about mighty little Davey online, some criticism warranted, some clearly fueled by "non-hockey" issues and some by fans like of other players. In my opinion, DD is truly a 2C or 3C that can produce 40-55pts with good wingers. For the past few seasons he was pushed into the 1C chair, where he does not belong. This was because he earned a shot early on but also because of necessity. Much like Koivu (before you go bonkers, I am not saying DD is as good as Koivu was, Captain K was far better), DD was the team's 1C by default and necessity. Furthermore, DD was, in my mind, always a stop gap until other players developed into solid NHL caliber centers. This has not yet happened on this team so DD floats up and down the lineup. This player has 2 years left at 3.5 and has produced 40-50 points each season since he became a regular. That makes him quite tradeable for a team looking for an offensively gifted 2C. Oh and lets drop one silly point: players in the NHL perform based on who they play with, except for the franchise caliber players. So of course DD needs to play with quality wingers. My guess is this guy gets traded this year or next summer. 

5- Pacioretty will, in my opinion, be the next Captain. The guy has grown in leaps and bounds and became a complete player. He is also asking for residency and learning french (with a tutor). This guy cleary gets it and clearly wants to be here long-term. He will make a fine captain for this team. He has really developed well under this team's management. Yes that includes the coach...

6- Subban was fined for diving-embellishment. Fans got angry. I was surprised it took this long for him to be fined as he has been a pretty consistent abuser of the embellishment. To be clear: he is far from alone in doing this but that does not mean he does not do it. The fine was warranted and Subban being the smart player that he is, he will correct this part of his game. The other option is to keep doing it and to hurt his team through penalties (called against him or not called when players take liberties with him). This is all part of the growing process for this incredibly talented and clutch franchise d-man. 

7- Beaulieu clearly got the "Earn it" concept. When he was recalled last time he showed that he wanted it and thus earned a spot and then climbed into the top 4 on D. this speaks volumes to the development of players under this team's management. Great to see this kid continue to develop.

8- Tinordi on the other hand still has to show he can "earn it". This may yet happen as he is still on the team's top prospect-young player list. However, he will get a spot when management feels he has earned it. 

9- Lars Eller....good ole Lars! I personally think that this player has shown he will be a 3C, nothing more. He can become a solid 3C but he simply does not have the offensive vision and instincts to play as an offensively minded C. He does not have the consistency to do so nor the vision. Fans lament he does not get his "chance" but the flip side is that you have to earn that chance through hard play and yes production! Looking at Lars when did he score last? This has become a trend with him which does not mean he is not one of the key players on this team. When the Center line settles with something like Galchenyuk-Plekanec as the 1-2C he can be a good 3C. Manage your expectations as such.

10- The Maple Leafs have become pity worthy. At least their fans have. My hatred of this franchise and team has been tempered by more kind heated sentiments towards a fan base that deserves better. It is also better when the Leafs are good as it becomes fun to hate them!